The Geopolitics of Selective Interdependency: Energy Statecraft for Critical Raw Materials

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reset European energy security perspective. The interdependence developed first with the Soviet Union then Russia was now broken. This has had a knock-on effect of questioning the interdependence with China as a key partner for the energy transition. If Europe’s gas market was built with Russia, can Europe’s zero-carbon economy be built with Chinese products? To assess a new energy security perspective the global interdependencies around low and zero-carbon technologies need to be assessed. The definition of energy security would need to expand to include the unique features of low carbon technologies. The development of technologies would also need to be assessed from a security perspective; more akin to a space race, than recreating a global oil or gas market. Finally, just as the Carter Doctrine militarized the Persian Gulf for the protection of oil, the supply chains for raw resources and manufacturing necessary for a low-carbon energy system will need to be assessed.