TY - JOUR
T1 - The future is not what it used to be
T2 - the failure of bipolarisation
AU - Enyedi, Zsolt
AU - Bértoa, Fernando Casal
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Arguably, the most fundamental question one can ask about a party system is whether it is bipolar or not. Based on theoretical conjectures and on tendencies one observed during the 1990s and early 2000s, as well as reflecting the position of the academic community at the time (e.g. [Bale, T. (2003). Cinderella and Her ugly sisters: The mainstream and extreme right in Europe's bipolarising party systems. West European Politics, 26(3), 67–90; Müller, W., & Fallend, F. (2004). Changing patterns of party competition in Austria: From multipolar to bipolar system. West European Politics, 27(5), 801–835]), Peter Mair had a clear prediction: the future of party politics would be bipolar. Using the Who Governs Europe dataset [Casal Bértoa, F., & Enyedi, Z. (2021a). Party system closure: Party alliances, government alternatives, and democracy in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press], the article examines the validity of Mair's predictions. Notwithstanding certain exceptions (e.g. Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Serbia), the article demonstrates that the tendency towards increasingly bipolarised party politics has failed to materialise. Next to the description of empirical patterns the article provides suggestions on how to improve our conceptual apparatus of party system analysis.
AB - Arguably, the most fundamental question one can ask about a party system is whether it is bipolar or not. Based on theoretical conjectures and on tendencies one observed during the 1990s and early 2000s, as well as reflecting the position of the academic community at the time (e.g. [Bale, T. (2003). Cinderella and Her ugly sisters: The mainstream and extreme right in Europe's bipolarising party systems. West European Politics, 26(3), 67–90; Müller, W., & Fallend, F. (2004). Changing patterns of party competition in Austria: From multipolar to bipolar system. West European Politics, 27(5), 801–835]), Peter Mair had a clear prediction: the future of party politics would be bipolar. Using the Who Governs Europe dataset [Casal Bértoa, F., & Enyedi, Z. (2021a). Party system closure: Party alliances, government alternatives, and democracy in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press], the article examines the validity of Mair's predictions. Notwithstanding certain exceptions (e.g. Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Serbia), the article demonstrates that the tendency towards increasingly bipolarised party politics has failed to materialise. Next to the description of empirical patterns the article provides suggestions on how to improve our conceptual apparatus of party system analysis.
KW - Bipolarisation
KW - Europe
KW - Poles
KW - government alternation
KW - structure of inter-party competition
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85126238807&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/07907184.2022.2043083
DO - 10.1080/07907184.2022.2043083
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85126238807
SN - 0790-7184
VL - 37
SP - 244
EP - 265
JO - Irish Political Studies
JF - Irish Political Studies
IS - 2
ER -