The Fatal Combination: How Democracy Died in Russia and How It May Survive in Ukraine

This article presents a comparative examination of de- and re-democratization processes in Russia and Ukraine, utilizing the concept of patronalism to delineate distinct regime types: patronal democracy and patronal autocracy, in contrast to Western-style liberal democracy. The analysis emphasizes the critical factors leading to the decline of democracy, specifically the monopolization of political power and the patronalization of social networks — the so-called “fatal combination.” In Russia, these factors converged under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, resulting in the death of democracy even before the war began. In contrast, while Ukraine has faced recurring autocratic attempts, the fatal combination has not fully materialized, though it has led to cyclical regime dynamics. The article concludes by examining the structural consequences of the war: “the good news” (potential anti-patronal transformation in Ukraine), “the bad news” (the rise of dictatorship in Russia and the threat of autocracy under Volodymyr Zelensky), and “the hope” (the elements indicating Ukraine’s long-term transition from patronal to liberal democracy).