TY - JOUR
T1 - The diaspora model for human migration
AU - Prieto-Curiel, Rafael
AU - Ali, Ola
AU - Dervić, Elma
AU - Karimi, Fariba
AU - Omodei, Elisa
AU - Stütz, Rainer
AU - Holovatch, Yurij
AU - Heiler, Georg
N1 - © The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.
PY - 2024/5/21
Y1 - 2024/5/21
N2 - Migration’s impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.
AB - Migration’s impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.
KW - Austria
KW - United States of America
KW - diaspora
KW - gravity
KW - migration
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85194065545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae178
DO - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae178
M3 - Article
C2 - 38774392
AN - SCOPUS:85194065545
SN - 2752-6542
VL - 3
SP - pgae178
JO - PNAS Nexus
JF - PNAS Nexus
IS - 5
M1 - pgae178
ER -