Abstract (may include machine translation)
Young people are amongst the main catalysers of migration. They leave their home countries in search of work, to study or join their families. The most vulnerable ones are arguably those who were forced to migrate, fleeing from human rights violations, war, extreme poverty. In the context of the ‘migration crisis’ of 2015, asylum seekers were under the spotlight of the public and political discourse in many European countries, as their number increased significantly. Some politicians as well as media outlets often portrayed them as a threatening and disruptive force, capable of damaging the well-being and economic standing of European nationals.
Therefore, the aim of this report is to scientifically explore the potential impact asylum seeking youth presence and size may have on major economic and societal subsystems, in order to promote debates and discourse based on evidence rather than prejudice. The study, applies econometric modelling to investigate the potential systemic effects that the presence of young asylum seekers can have on macro-level structures such as education, the labour market and social welfare systems. Adding to previous research, this study focuses specifically on the potential influences of young asylum applicants, a group of migrants that is increasing in magnitude and in relevance across Europe and on which suitable statistical data are available.
The report is strongly intertwined with the first and second deliverables of MIMY’s Work Package2. The data used for the analysis draws from the data inventory complied by the consortium in D2.1 “Macro data inventory and documentation” as well as on macro (country)-level indicators on young asylum applicants and micro (individual) level data from the European Social Survey on third-country national (TCN) youth, to complement the analysis. The description and interpretation of the results is built on the findings of D2.2 “Public report on describing and comparing the dimension, characteristics and dynamics of youth migrants in European countries”. The study provided a description of the four dimensions of immigrants’ integration (employment, education, social inclusion and active citizenship) in the EU on a macro level and an analysis of the factors of vulnerability using individual-level data in nine MIMY partner countries.
The number and share of young asylum seekers as well as their origins and backgrounds, largely varies across European countries. Thus, the current research first wants to geographically profiles young European asylum seekers, providing a description of young asylum seekers in Europe (2.1) as well as of the characteristics of destination countries using cluster analysis (2.2). Using panel data modelling, the study then proceeds to analyse the effects of young asylum seekers’ on the labour market (2.3), the education system (2.4) and social protection expenditures (2.5) of the receiving countries. Finally, to check the robustness of the analysis results a counterfactual impact assessment with individual data was conducted (3).
Applying the well-known migration model developed by Van Hear et al. (2012), section 2.2 offered a categorization of European countries by employing cluster analysis along the most important macro-economic and societal factors (acting as predisposing, precipitating, mediating factors). The result of the analysis grouped European countries into four clusters: (1) northern continental, Nordic countries and the UK, which offer the most attractive conditions for immigrants and asylum seeking youth in Europe; (2) Emerging destination countries with medium economic wealth, social inequalities and business freedom, which include countries of the former Communist Block (Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovenia), as well as Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain; (3) economically and/or politically less attractive countries, such as Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and (4) outliers such as Ireland and Norway.
The panel regression analysis found no impact of asylum-seeking youth on youth unemployment rates (2.2). In other words: the number of young asylum seekers living in the country does not seem to have any effect on the likelihood of young nationals to be unemployed. As a robustness check of our conclusions, a counterfactual assessment was conducted for comparing labour market integration of young migrants with similar young natives (3). The results show that we cannot claim that young migrants are more likely to be unemployed compared to young natives, as initially hypothesized.
When considering welfare systems (2.4), the econometric modelling found a small positive effect of the share of asylum seekers on social protection expenditures: an increase of 1% of the share of young asylum seekers in the total young population is associated with an increase of 1.3% in the social protection expenditures per capita. Also, worth mentioning that there is no common system of social protection spending in the European Union and most of the European states do not account for specific social protection expenditures related to the asylum seekers.
Finally, the macro panel data modelling aims at identifying the potential effect on education (2.3). No statistically significant effect could be established between the proportion of young asylum seekers and the education system of the host country, measured by the NEET rate or by the early leavers ratio. The effects of immigration on the receiving country’s education system depend greatly on the characteristic of the immigrant population (their income, their attitude towards education).
Our results lead to several possible policy implications that could be useful for stakeholders and policy-makers:
Firstly, we have demonstrated the lack of effect of the share of asylum seekers on national labour markets and education systems. This suggests that fearing a pressure on economies and societies that might arise due refugees’ inflows reported in some part of the public discourse, is not backed up by scientific evidence.
Secondly, the social protection expenditures are slightly affected by the share of asylum seekers in young population. This reflects the efforts made for implementing social protection and integration policies, mostly in the European countries receiving high numbers of migrants. Such integration policies need to be further sustained, as the inflow of young immigrants may create benefits and respond to labour force shortages in many countries.
Finally, the economic integration through labour market participation is crucial, for both TCNs and young natives. The two groups of young individuals, natives and TCNs, have similar likelihood to being unemployed, even if they have different sorts of vulnerabilities and TCNs are vulnerable on multiple dimensions compared to natives. In this sense, an integrated policy approach may be useful for more effectively tackling the problem of youth unemployment in Europe.
Looking to the future, we want to acknowledge that the methodological approach taken in our analysis (macro-econometric modelling) despite offering the great benefit of identifying systemic effects, is quite broad and thus not able to detect local effects. Considering smaller geographical units (local areas), where asylum-seeking youth actually reside (often with some geographical concentration) and where they benefit from local services, may yield to complementary, detailed and focused results on the effect of asylum seekers on major societal structures as well as on the influence local actors and institutions have on migrant youth integration process. This is the focus of WP5 and WP6 of the MIMY project, examining the Effects of Local Actors on migration and integration dynamics (WP5) and Assessing the critical role of the local population (WP6) respectively, using qualitative methodologies.
Therefore, the aim of this report is to scientifically explore the potential impact asylum seeking youth presence and size may have on major economic and societal subsystems, in order to promote debates and discourse based on evidence rather than prejudice. The study, applies econometric modelling to investigate the potential systemic effects that the presence of young asylum seekers can have on macro-level structures such as education, the labour market and social welfare systems. Adding to previous research, this study focuses specifically on the potential influences of young asylum applicants, a group of migrants that is increasing in magnitude and in relevance across Europe and on which suitable statistical data are available.
The report is strongly intertwined with the first and second deliverables of MIMY’s Work Package2. The data used for the analysis draws from the data inventory complied by the consortium in D2.1 “Macro data inventory and documentation” as well as on macro (country)-level indicators on young asylum applicants and micro (individual) level data from the European Social Survey on third-country national (TCN) youth, to complement the analysis. The description and interpretation of the results is built on the findings of D2.2 “Public report on describing and comparing the dimension, characteristics and dynamics of youth migrants in European countries”. The study provided a description of the four dimensions of immigrants’ integration (employment, education, social inclusion and active citizenship) in the EU on a macro level and an analysis of the factors of vulnerability using individual-level data in nine MIMY partner countries.
The number and share of young asylum seekers as well as their origins and backgrounds, largely varies across European countries. Thus, the current research first wants to geographically profiles young European asylum seekers, providing a description of young asylum seekers in Europe (2.1) as well as of the characteristics of destination countries using cluster analysis (2.2). Using panel data modelling, the study then proceeds to analyse the effects of young asylum seekers’ on the labour market (2.3), the education system (2.4) and social protection expenditures (2.5) of the receiving countries. Finally, to check the robustness of the analysis results a counterfactual impact assessment with individual data was conducted (3).
Applying the well-known migration model developed by Van Hear et al. (2012), section 2.2 offered a categorization of European countries by employing cluster analysis along the most important macro-economic and societal factors (acting as predisposing, precipitating, mediating factors). The result of the analysis grouped European countries into four clusters: (1) northern continental, Nordic countries and the UK, which offer the most attractive conditions for immigrants and asylum seeking youth in Europe; (2) Emerging destination countries with medium economic wealth, social inequalities and business freedom, which include countries of the former Communist Block (Poland, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, Slovenia), as well as Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain; (3) economically and/or politically less attractive countries, such as Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and (4) outliers such as Ireland and Norway.
The panel regression analysis found no impact of asylum-seeking youth on youth unemployment rates (2.2). In other words: the number of young asylum seekers living in the country does not seem to have any effect on the likelihood of young nationals to be unemployed. As a robustness check of our conclusions, a counterfactual assessment was conducted for comparing labour market integration of young migrants with similar young natives (3). The results show that we cannot claim that young migrants are more likely to be unemployed compared to young natives, as initially hypothesized.
When considering welfare systems (2.4), the econometric modelling found a small positive effect of the share of asylum seekers on social protection expenditures: an increase of 1% of the share of young asylum seekers in the total young population is associated with an increase of 1.3% in the social protection expenditures per capita. Also, worth mentioning that there is no common system of social protection spending in the European Union and most of the European states do not account for specific social protection expenditures related to the asylum seekers.
Finally, the macro panel data modelling aims at identifying the potential effect on education (2.3). No statistically significant effect could be established between the proportion of young asylum seekers and the education system of the host country, measured by the NEET rate or by the early leavers ratio. The effects of immigration on the receiving country’s education system depend greatly on the characteristic of the immigrant population (their income, their attitude towards education).
Our results lead to several possible policy implications that could be useful for stakeholders and policy-makers:
Firstly, we have demonstrated the lack of effect of the share of asylum seekers on national labour markets and education systems. This suggests that fearing a pressure on economies and societies that might arise due refugees’ inflows reported in some part of the public discourse, is not backed up by scientific evidence.
Secondly, the social protection expenditures are slightly affected by the share of asylum seekers in young population. This reflects the efforts made for implementing social protection and integration policies, mostly in the European countries receiving high numbers of migrants. Such integration policies need to be further sustained, as the inflow of young immigrants may create benefits and respond to labour force shortages in many countries.
Finally, the economic integration through labour market participation is crucial, for both TCNs and young natives. The two groups of young individuals, natives and TCNs, have similar likelihood to being unemployed, even if they have different sorts of vulnerabilities and TCNs are vulnerable on multiple dimensions compared to natives. In this sense, an integrated policy approach may be useful for more effectively tackling the problem of youth unemployment in Europe.
Looking to the future, we want to acknowledge that the methodological approach taken in our analysis (macro-econometric modelling) despite offering the great benefit of identifying systemic effects, is quite broad and thus not able to detect local effects. Considering smaller geographical units (local areas), where asylum-seeking youth actually reside (often with some geographical concentration) and where they benefit from local services, may yield to complementary, detailed and focused results on the effect of asylum seekers on major societal structures as well as on the influence local actors and institutions have on migrant youth integration process. This is the focus of WP5 and WP6 of the MIMY project, examining the Effects of Local Actors on migration and integration dynamics (WP5) and Assessing the critical role of the local population (WP6) respectively, using qualitative methodologies.
Original language | English |
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Number of pages | 57 |
State | Published - 2021 |
Publication series
Name | MIMY |
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No. | 2.3 |