TY - JOUR
T1 - Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors
AU - Fertig, Michael
AU - Kahanec, Martin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015, Fertig and Kahanec; licensee Springer.
PY - 2015/12/1
Y1 - 2015/12/1
N2 - This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.
AB - This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.
KW - C23
KW - C53
KW - F22
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84983381203&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8
DO - 10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84983381203
SN - 2193-9039
VL - 4
JO - IZA Journal of Migration
JF - IZA Journal of Migration
IS - 1
M1 - 6
ER -