Predicting individual disease risk based on medical history

Darcy A. Davis, Nitesh V. Chawla, Nicholas Blumm, Albert László Barabási, Nicholas Christakis

Research output: Contribution to Book/Report typesConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract (may include machine translation)

The monumental cost of health care, especially for chronic disease treatment, is quickly becoming unmanageable. This crisis has motivated the drive towards preventative medicine, where the primary concern is recognizing disease risk and taking action at the earliest signs. However, universal testing is neither time nor cost effcient. We propose CARE, a Collaborative Assessment and Recommendation Engine, which relies only on a patient's medical history using ICD- 9-CM codes in order to predict future diseases risks. CARE uses collaborative filltering to predict each patient's greatest disease risks based on their own medical history and that of similar patients. We also describe an Iterative version, ICARE, which incorporates ensemble concepts for improved performance. These novel systems require no specialized information and provide predictions for medical conditions of all kinds in a single run. We present experimental results on a Medicare dataset, demonstrating that CARE and ICARE perform well at capturing future disease risks.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 17th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM'08
Pages769-778
Number of pages10
DOIs
StatePublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes
Event17th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM'08 - Napa Valley, CA, United States
Duration: 26 Oct 200830 Oct 2008

Publication series

NameInternational Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, Proceedings

Conference

Conference17th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM'08
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNapa Valley, CA
Period26/10/0830/10/08

Keywords

  • Collaborative filltering
  • Disease risk prediction
  • Ensemble
  • Pospective health care

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