Abstract (may include machine translation)
Ha az EU közös valutája sikeres és visszafordíthatatlan folyamat végterméke, akkor hiábavaló minden törekvés, amely a tagjelölteket az általa támasztott követelmények alól hosszú átmenetekkel próbálná kimenteni. A stabilitási és növekedési egyezmény, valamint az ERM-2 tagság együttesen oly szigorú belépési követelményeket támaszt, aminek egyetlen gyorsan felzárkózó ország sem tud önerőből megfelelni. Ezért érdemes az eurótagsági követelményeket úgy átfogalmazni, hogy tartalmukat megőrizve teljesíthetők legyenek. A közép-európai növekedés tartós lelassulása eközben a Balassa-Samuelson hatást a gyakorlatban jelentősen leértékeli, miközben a rövid lejáratú tőkebeáramlás kockázata laza államháztartási politika mellett megnő.*
If the single currency proved to be a success and the process leading to it is irrevocable it makes hardly any sense to attempt at lengthy transition periods for EU candidate countries. Meanwhile the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as membership in ERM-2 together set so severe conditions that no quickly growing economy is able to meet, at least on its own. Thus it mat make sense to rephrase the entry criteria to EMU so that their substance would not be watered down. However the lasting deceleration of growth rates in CEE diminish the practical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect; while the risks inherent in the speedy inflow of short term portfolio capital is on the increase, especially under lax fiscal stances.
If the single currency proved to be a success and the process leading to it is irrevocable it makes hardly any sense to attempt at lengthy transition periods for EU candidate countries. Meanwhile the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as membership in ERM-2 together set so severe conditions that no quickly growing economy is able to meet, at least on its own. Thus it mat make sense to rephrase the entry criteria to EMU so that their substance would not be watered down. However the lasting deceleration of growth rates in CEE diminish the practical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect; while the risks inherent in the speedy inflow of short term portfolio capital is on the increase, especially under lax fiscal stances.
Translated title of the contribution | Is EMU Maturity an Additional Entry Condition for EU Membership? |
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Original language | Hungarian |
Article number | 2 |
Pages (from-to) | 32-46 |
Number of pages | 15 |
Journal | KÜLGAZDASÁG |
Volume | 46 |
Issue number | 2 |
State | Published - 2002 |