Opposing Backsliding Through Policy Competition: The Case of Poland's Civic Platform (2015-2023)

Democratic backsliding is often accompanied by popular policy innovations which boost the incumbent’s popularity, leaving opposition parties in a difficult electoral position. We analyze the strategies available to the opposition in such contexts through a theoretical discussion of issue-based competition and an exploratory case study of Poland’s main opposition party Civic Platform (PO) during eight years of democratic backsliding under United Right governments. Studying the changing positions of PO in three policy areas (abortion, social policy and national memory and identity), we outline how the opposition can re-position itself to attract votes. We argue that backsliding, because it produces a sense of urgency, incentivizes opposition parties to shift some of their policy positions either towards or away from the incumbent’s – even on issues that are central to their political identity. Because backsliding unleashes an existential conflict that strengthens partisan loyalties, opposition voters tolerate some changes that go against their preferences.