Motivated Belief Updating and Rationalization of Information

Christoph Drobner*, Sebastian J. Goerg*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract (may include machine translation)

We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego relevance of the task, we show that subjects substantially overweight positive information relative to negative information because they derive direct utility from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral explanation why and how overconfidence can evolve in the presence of objective information. Moreover, we document that subjects who receive more negative information downplay the ego relevance of the task. These findings suggest that subjects use two alternative strategies to protect their ego when presented with objective information.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4583-4592
Number of pages10
JournalManagement Science
Volume70
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2024
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayes’ rule
  • direct belief utility
  • motivated beliefs
  • optimistic belief updating
  • overconfidence

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