TY - JOUR
T1 - Malaria and meningitis under climate change
T2 - initial assessment of climate information service in Nigeria
AU - Ayanlade, Ayansina
AU - Sergi, Consolato
AU - Ayanlade, Oluwatoyin S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Meteorological Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
PY - 2020/9/1
Y1 - 2020/9/1
N2 - It is often difficult to define the relationship and the influence of climate on the occurrence and distribution of disease. To examine this issue, the effects of climate indices on the distributions of malaria and meningitis in Nigeria were assessed over space and time. The main purpose of the study was to evaluate the relationships between climatic variables and the prevalence of malaria and meningitis, and develop an early warning system for predicting the prevalence of malaria and meningitis as the climate varies. An early warning system was developed to predetermine the months in a year that people are vulnerable to malaria and meningitis. The results revealed a significant positive relationship between rainfall and malaria, especially during the wet season with correlation coefficient R2 ≥ 60.0 in almost all the ecological zones. In the Sahel, Sudan and Guinea, there appears to be a strong relationship between temperature and meningitis with R2 > 60.0. In all, the results further reveal that temperatures and aerosols have a strong relationship with meningitis. The assessment of these initial data seems to support the finding that the occurrence of meningitis is higher in the northern region, especially the Sahel and Sudan. In contrast, malaria occurrence is higher in the southern part of the study area. We suggest that a thorough investigation of climate parameters is critical for the reallocation of clinical resources and infrastructures in economically underprivileged regions.
AB - It is often difficult to define the relationship and the influence of climate on the occurrence and distribution of disease. To examine this issue, the effects of climate indices on the distributions of malaria and meningitis in Nigeria were assessed over space and time. The main purpose of the study was to evaluate the relationships between climatic variables and the prevalence of malaria and meningitis, and develop an early warning system for predicting the prevalence of malaria and meningitis as the climate varies. An early warning system was developed to predetermine the months in a year that people are vulnerable to malaria and meningitis. The results revealed a significant positive relationship between rainfall and malaria, especially during the wet season with correlation coefficient R2 ≥ 60.0 in almost all the ecological zones. In the Sahel, Sudan and Guinea, there appears to be a strong relationship between temperature and meningitis with R2 > 60.0. In all, the results further reveal that temperatures and aerosols have a strong relationship with meningitis. The assessment of these initial data seems to support the finding that the occurrence of meningitis is higher in the northern region, especially the Sahel and Sudan. In contrast, malaria occurrence is higher in the southern part of the study area. We suggest that a thorough investigation of climate parameters is critical for the reallocation of clinical resources and infrastructures in economically underprivileged regions.
KW - aerosol
KW - climatic indices
KW - malaria
KW - meningitis
KW - tropical ecological zones
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85094165765&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/met.1953
DO - 10.1002/met.1953
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85094165765
SN - 1350-4827
VL - 27
JO - Meteorological Applications
JF - Meteorological Applications
IS - 5
M1 - e1953
ER -