Liberalization, transition and consolidation: Measuring the components of democratization

This article measures the process of democratization by subdividing it into three components: the liberalization of autocracy, the mode of transition and the consolidation of democracy. The 30 or so countries included in the study are situated in different world regions, mainly southern and eastern Europe, south and central America and the former Soviet Union - all of which have experienced regime transitions since 1974. The study also includes a sample of countries from the Middle East and northern Africa that are, at best, only in an embryonic stage of liberalization. Measured by scalograms, the data provide comparative indicators of the progress each country has achieved over the period 1974-2000. The study tests this time series for 'patterns', guided by the hypothesis that the multiple dimensions of liberalization, transition and consolidation are consistently related to each other, both temporally and spatially. The findings indicate a single underlying dimensional structure to the data. This allows separate scales for liberalization and consolidation to be created and combined into a general indicator of democratization. Contrary to expectations in the literature, most central and eastern European countries perform comparatively better than the southern European and Latin American cases. Not only do they reach the same high levels of liberalization and consolidation, but they also do so in a much shorter time span. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence in the Middle Eastern and North African data that the liberalization of autocratic regimes does not always play a democratization triggering role.