Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond

Erno Téglás, Vittorio Girotto, Michel Gonzalez, Luca L. Bonatti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract (may include machine translation)

Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers' reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but not overt judgments, only after 4 years of age. Our results suggest that at the onset of human decision processes the mind contains an intuition of elementary probability that cannot be reduced to the encountered frequency of events or elementary heuristics.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)19156-19159
Number of pages4
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume104
Issue number48
DOIs
StatePublished - 27 Nov 2007
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Cognitive development
  • Early numerical reasoning
  • Early probability reasoning
  • Infant cognition

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