TY - JOUR
T1 - Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures
T2 - A case study in Hungary
AU - Li, Sen
AU - Juhász-Horváth, Linda
AU - Pedde, Simona
AU - Pintér, László
AU - Rounsevell, Mark D.A.
AU - Harrison, Paula A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges.
AB - To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges.
KW - Hungary
KW - Integrated modelling
KW - Integrated socioeconomic and climate change scenarios
KW - Population distribution
KW - Stakeholder
KW - Urban land cover change
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85023617582&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.07.005
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85023617582
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 96
SP - 251
EP - 264
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
ER -