Formalizing knowledge on international environmental regimes for integrated assessment modeling

International environmental regimes are considered key factors in dealing with global environmental problems. It is important to understand if and how these regimes are effective in solving or improving global environmental problems. In this paper we present a multidisciplinary approach to formalize knowledge on the effectiveness of environmental regimes. We constructed a conceptual framework to enhance systematic analysis of conditions that influence regime effectiveness and implemented this into a computer model using fuzzy logic reasoning. We applied the model in a preliminary analysis of two environmental regimes, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The model can be used to analyze past and future attempts to develop and implement environmental regimes, highlighting the determinants which contribute to success or failure. Results from these analyses can be used to improve scenario storylines in integrated assessment modeling. Although this paper shows that formalizing knowledge on environmental regime theory is not a trivial endeavor, it facilitates and improves the cooperation between scientists from regime theory and integrated assessment.