Forecasting international tourism trends to 2010

Egon Smeral*, Andrea Weber

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract (may include machine translation)

Modifications of earlier versions of forecasting models make it possible to trace the effects of changes in income and prices emanating from each individual country considered in this paper. At the theoretical level, it examines the assumptions underlying partial demand models and points out the implications of these assumptions in the context of those relating to international tourism. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 20 countries for the period up to 2010. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the introduction of the Euro and of changes in framework conditions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)982-1006
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume27
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2000
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Euro
  • Exports
  • Forecasts
  • Imports
  • Partial models

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