Exploring U.S. Residential and Commercial Electricity Conservation Potentials: Analysis of the Lighting Sector

The design of an effective energy policy aimed at improving energy efficiency requires a thorough understanding of the targeted end-use: the technologies used, the patterns of energy use, the costs and magnitude of energy conservation potentials, and the dynamics and characteristics of the market. This dissertation provides guidance for policy-makers and program designers who are interested in lighting, the end-use that is most often targeted by U.S. residential and commercial energy-efficiency programs.

This dissertation serves as a sourcebook facilitating a thorough design of US commercial and residential lighting policies and programs, by conducting detailed lighting market and conservation potential analyses from a policy perspective. I construct conservation supply curves for both the commercial and residential lighting sectors. The supply curves project phased-in energy savings potentials in 2010, and provide energy-efficiency investment schedules for program designers, and policy agendas for policy-makers. I identify specific lighting technologies, building types, and end-user groups that are prime candidates for being targeted by lighting policies. In order to supply guidelines for the actual course of effective lighting policy design, I perform a comprehensive analysis of the commercial and residential lighting marketplace.

Within this analysis, I first systematically assess lighting technologies available in the commercial and residential marketplace from the standpoint of the policy-maker, and summarize the information in a format that facilitates a thorough program design process. I highlight specific technological characteristics that may jeopardize the success of lighting programs if not considered carefully. Then, I pursue an analysis of the lighting market: product ownership and energy use, market product mix, market participants, stakes and interests, consumer preferences, market transactions and distribution channels. Again, I highlight market characteristics and mechanisms that can impede or enhance the success of lighting programs. I also point out areas in which the lack of adequate market information or inconsistent data can severely inhibit a thorough program design process. I do not attempt to provide a guide to the choice among policy tools, or to warn the program designer of the fallacies and pitfalls associated with the various policy and program alternatives; instead, I provide information for lighting policy/program design.