Energy savings potential in the Hungarian public buildings for space heating

According to IPCC the largest amount of cost-effective mitigation potential is in the building sector. Most of the studies, however, focus on the residential sector, and only few on non-residential buildings. This paper describes the results of energy savings and mitigation potential analysis in the Hungarian public sector for space heating. The abatement options include improvement of energy efficiency of building envelope and heating system, heat controls and passive energy standard for new construction. The baseline energy use is based on the results of energy audits collected under UNDP/GEF project for municipal buildings. Energy savings potential is determined using two different approaches. According to the well-established component-based approach more than one third of the 2030 energy use can be reduced cost-effectively which is in line with other studies of this type. The rather new, performance-based analysis shows that 3 times higher total potential can be achieved by gradual phase-in of passive energy standard to both existing and new buildings. Based on this approach, several scenarios are constructed to analyze the impact of different rates of retrofit and performance levels on energy savings, mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness. The study shows that although the rate of retrofit is a significant factor for the total potential, it is even more important to what level of energy performance buildings are built or retrofitted. The study shows that if existing buildings are retrofitted at an accelerated rate only partially, the resulting potential will be only slightly higher than if buildings are retrofitted at natural rate of retrofit to passive energy standard.