Abstract (may include machine translation)
While it is a well-accepted fact in the energy efficiency expert community that reducing energy use in the building sector is one of the most effective and cost-effective ways for climate change mitigation, the magnitude of the real opportunities have rarely been quantified in a rigorous way, or are contradictory. Reliable figures on the real contribution buildings can make to climate change mitigation and meeting other global societal goals are crucial in the arena of a broad portfolio of different alternatives, all strongly competing for their market shares.
3CSEP at the Central European University has been assessing and synthesizing various global research initiatives in this field for over a decade, including leading efforts for the IPCC’s 4th and 5th Assessment Reports, the Global Energy Assessment, and now for the newly established Global Best Practice Network for Buildings. In a rigorous, detailed modeling exercise based on a novel and comprehensive methodology, new mitigation scenarios on global and regional building energy use have been constructed and rooted in the latest building science and documented best practice experiences. The paper presents three scenarios of building energy use until the middle of the century.
The results of this building energy and emission modeling work attest that buildings can play a crucial role: despite growing population, welfare and increased energy service levels in buildings, global final energy use for heating, cooling and water heating in 2050 can be reduced by one-third as compared to 2005 levels. In contrast, the research highlighted that present policy trends are still very far from reaching such ambitions: about 80% of cost-effective energy savings will be locked-in for decades, where only a fraction of this potential can ever be harvested and at much greater costs. The paper clearly demonstrates the urgency of ambitious policy efforts, actions in the developing world, urban areas and specific building types.
3CSEP at the Central European University has been assessing and synthesizing various global research initiatives in this field for over a decade, including leading efforts for the IPCC’s 4th and 5th Assessment Reports, the Global Energy Assessment, and now for the newly established Global Best Practice Network for Buildings. In a rigorous, detailed modeling exercise based on a novel and comprehensive methodology, new mitigation scenarios on global and regional building energy use have been constructed and rooted in the latest building science and documented best practice experiences. The paper presents three scenarios of building energy use until the middle of the century.
The results of this building energy and emission modeling work attest that buildings can play a crucial role: despite growing population, welfare and increased energy service levels in buildings, global final energy use for heating, cooling and water heating in 2050 can be reduced by one-third as compared to 2005 levels. In contrast, the research highlighted that present policy trends are still very far from reaching such ambitions: about 80% of cost-effective energy savings will be locked-in for decades, where only a fraction of this potential can ever be harvested and at much greater costs. The paper clearly demonstrates the urgency of ambitious policy efforts, actions in the developing world, urban areas and specific building types.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | eceee 2013 Summer Study on energy efficiency |
| Subtitle of host publication | Rethink, renew, restart |
| Publisher | European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy |
| Pages | 1543-1553 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9789198048230 |
| ISBN (Print) | 9789198048223 |
| State | Published - 2013 |
Publication series
| Name | ECEEE Summer Study proceedings |
|---|---|
| ISSN (Print) | 1653-7025 |
| ISSN (Electronic) | 2001-7960 |
