A lakossági fűtési célú energiafelhasználás térbeli mintázata Magyarországon

The energy transition is a complex, multidimensional, non-linear process that results in new spatial patterns of the energy systems. The diffusion of modern and low-carbon heating solutions and technologies, and thus the change in the energy mix, is not uniform and varies from area to area. Not only households but also lower territorial levels and municipalities can be assigned to a particular level of the energy mix. Many social, economic, political and geographical factors influence the uptake of alternative heating technologies, either accelerating or slowing it down. In this study, the authors investigate the spatial context of residential energy use for heating in Hungary based on 2022 census data along one km² grid cells, focusing on traditional fuels (i.e. household waste, coal, lignite, firewood) and alternative heating (i.e. solar collectors, solar PV systems and heat pumps). From a theoretical point of view, the study extends the theory of energy ladder and energy stacking theory and contributes to the understanding of the substitution of fossil-based domestic heating energy by clean energy and, in this context, the diffusion of alternative heating technologies. Global and local Moran I is applied to test spatial autocorrelation, to identify hot and cold spots for different fuels, and to cluster the grid cells. The results show that in addition to socio-economic variables, spatial location has a significant impact on household energy use, and households with similar energy mixes are spatially concentrated. The grid cells are located at different levels of the energy ladder, similar to households. These results confirm the need for spatially concentrated and decentralized energy policy for a just energy transition.