CIP-EVAL: Does Leveling the Classroom Prevent Drop-out? Impact Evaluation of the Complex Instruction Program in Hungary

Hungary has one of the highest early school drop-out rates in the European Union, and this rate has increased over the past decade in contrast to most EU member states. The Complex Instruction Program (CIP), originally developed at Stanford University and adapted in Hungary aims, to reduce educational inequalities in diverse classrooms, by breaking entrenched class hierarchies through structured group work. Teachers reorganize students into mixed groups of various academic and social backgrounds and increase the visibility of lower-status students. The status-raising group work, the core innovation of CIP, encourages students to recognize and value diverse competencies, creating more equitable learning environments. In the CIP structure, through playing various roles in group work, students actively engage in meaningful learning, gain confidence, and improve their academic self-concept in tasks which could have been prohibitively hard for them previously. Anecdotal evidence from Hungary (e.g., the village of Hejokeresztur) suggests that the CIP program effectively prevents drop-out and may even prevent the ‘white flight’. However, credible causal evidence based on high-quality administrative data against an appropriate control group is lacking, and our research project CIP-EVAL aims to fill this gap.

We ask the following pre-specified research questions, in order of priority:
1. Is CIP effective in improving the achievement of students prone to dropping out of school, and in reducing the probability of dropping out? If yes, how large is its effect? (Primary question)
2. What are key mechanisms driving the effects of CIP?
3. Is CIP a good investment in cost-benefit terms?